Security and Conflict Outlook 2026: When Capability Meets Resolve

The Nextier 2026 Security and Conflict Outlook presents a data-driven analysis of Nigeria’s evolving security landscape, covering major trends in violent conflict between January and December 2025. Drawing from over 1,200 documented incidents and field intelligence, the report examines key drivers of insecurity including terrorism, banditry, gunmen attacks, kidnapping, farmer-herder conflict, secessionist agitation, and illicit mining. It highlights alarming spikes in fatalities, the deepening convergence between terror groups and criminal networks, and the spread of violence into previously unaffected regions. Beyond diagnosing the threats, the report also explores macroeconomic stressors and regional dynamics shaping Nigeria’s conflict ecosystem. Crucially, it assesses the Nigerian government’s heightened resolve in 2025, from the declaration of a national security emergency to targeted offensives, legal reforms, and expanded forest security. The report offers clear, actionable recommendations to help policymakers, security actors, and development partners respond more effectively in 2026.

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