Nigerian Power Sector Intelligence Report: H1 2025

The first half of 2025 exposed a contradiction at the heart of Nigeria’s power sector: record-breaking milestones coexisting with deepening structural insolvency. Although the Transmission Company of Nigeria set a new national peak of 5,801 MW, and sector-wide collections rose significantly, these achievements masked a worsening commercial crisis primarily driven by the distribution segment. The most powerful indicator of this disconnect is that while peak output improved, average hourly generation actually declined by 5.65% in Q2 2025, not due to plant failure, but because DisCos refused or were unable to take more load, an unmistakable commercial failure rather than a technical one.
Key Points (Bullet Summary)
• At current rates, closing the national metering gap will take 218 years, with some Distribution Companies (DisCos) requiring over a century to achieve this goal.
• Metering strongly predicts collection efficiency (r = 0.73), proving the centrality of accurate measurement for cash recovery.
• Billing efficiency remains decoupled from metering (r = 0.27), revealing deep systemic reliance on estimated billing.
• Despite peak generation records, average generation fell due to reduced DisCo offtake.
• Total uncollected revenue in H1 2025 reached ₦396.32 billion, worsening liquidity stress.
• The sector survived only through a ₦4 trillion federal rescue, confirming the market’s commercial non-viability.

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